Market hype around the FOMC decision has finally subsided with the FED cutting rates by 50 basis points. We saw movement across all markets, but what fascinated me most was Bitcoin. Among the biggest gainers after the rate cut, the strongest move was in BTCUSD, which finally broke back above $63,000. Looking ahead to next week, we have a significant number of economic events lined up, which should keep market volatility elevated. Let me share my research with you.

Economic Calendar

As seen from the image above, we have notable events every day, but it seems that Tuesday’s and Thursday’s rates will be the key drivers for the FX market.

Dollar Index Elliott Wave Forecast

The Dollar Index (DXY) continued to trade lower last week. I’m viewing the move from June 28 as the motive phase of wave [1]. Within wave [1], we can count four completed legs, and it appears that wave (5) is forming an ending diagonal. The US Dollar has been trading lower for a while, but I would like to see a recovery back to the 102.50-103.00 range in the coming weeks. I’ll be closely watching for early signs that wave (5) has completed.

 

GBPUSD Elliott Wave Forecast

The GBPUSD pair ended the week near its highs, confirming that the UK is strengthening its currency. From an Elliott Wave perspective, we’ve seen several sharp moves over the last few months, suggesting a motive structure. Currently, I’m tracking the bullish move from April 22 as an extended motive pattern, labeling the current high as wave [iii] of 3. I expect a pullback in wave [iv] before another push higher. This aligns well with the idea that the US Dollar will experience a correction. The 161.8% extension of wave [iii] versus [i] comes in around 1.3360, which is the next resistance I’m monitoring. After that, focus should shift back to 1.3200 for wave [iv] support.

 

USDJPY Elliott Wave Forecast

The USDJPY showed some bullish movement following the rate cut, suggesting a short-term trend change. From an Elliott Wave perspective, I’ve labeled the move from July 3 to September 16 as a complete 5-wave formation. The final drop in wave [v] appears to be an ending diagonal, which completed after a recent break above 143.00. Historically, USDJPY hasn’t always experienced deep pullbacks, so while we expect more bullish movement in the coming days, it’s wise to play it safe. The 148.00 resistance (38.2% retracement of the entire wave) should be the first key level to watch.

 

Silver Elliott Wave Forecast

Silver has been following our forecast from a few weeks ago perfectly, which is why I wanted to highlight it here. If you haven’t read the detailed report on Silver, you can check it out. After a prolonged struggle to move higher, we finally saw a break above 30.17 last Friday, continuing a series of higher highs and higher lows. We remain very bullish on this commodity and are viewing the current move from the September 6 low as wave 3 of (5). The ideal target for wave 3 is 33.80 (161.8% extension of wave 1), with invalidation at 27.65 (end of wave 2).

The image above also presents an alternate view, suggesting that a larger wave (4) may still be incomplete, possibly forming a triangle before the next move higher. Both counts point to the same larger view, so bullish plays remain our focus as long as 27.65 holds.

 

Bitcoin Elliott Wave Forecast

Bitcoin is not usually my primary instrument of choice, but last week’s move has put it on my watchlist for the next seven days. From the beginning of the year, Bitcoin has looked choppy, and as shown in the chart above, we are labeling the move as corrective wave [4]. This complex correction appears to be complete, and if we are correct, further bullish movement could follow through the end of the year. As long as the price remains above 50,000, we can expect it to reach new highs towards 74,000 and beyond. However, the move from the end of wave [4] isn’t very clear, so we need to consider the possibility of an ending diagonal as an alternate view. This wouldn’t change the larger outlook but suggests that choppier movements could continue as we move toward new highs.

Keep your trading simple—trade when you’re confident that the market is aligning with your expectations, and you’ll do well. If anything significant happens, I’ll update this report.

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Disclaimer: This report is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions, and no decision should be made based on the information presented in this report.